| PART I: INTRODUCTION | |
| CHAPTER 1: What Is Science? | |
| Why Learn Science? | 3 |
| Our Definition of Science | 6 |
| - Understanding | 6 |
| - Generality | 6 |
| - Experimental Test | 7 |
| Science versus the Humanities | 7 |
| The Case Histories | 9 |
| The General Principles | 10 |
| Mathematics and Science | 11 |
| Suggested Reading | 11 |
| CHAPTER 2: Facts | |
| What Are They? | 12 |
| Fooling the Eye | 12 |
| Seeing after Blindness | 13 |
| Facts Are "Theory Laden" | 17 |
| How Facts Are Used | 18 |
| How Science Begins | 19 |
| Collecting All the Facts | 19 |
| The Facts about Motion | 20 |
| Which Facts Are Relevant? | 21 |
| Science and Public Facts | 21 |
| Reference Notes | 22 |
| Suggested Reading | 22 |
| PART II: CASE HISTORIES | |
| CHAPTER 3: Snow on Cholera | |
| Introduction: The Man, the Background | 25 |
| The Disease | 27 |
| Introduction to the Study | 28 |
| - The History of Cholera | 29 |
| - Cholera is Contagious | 30 |
| - How Does Cholera Spread? The "Effluvia" Theory | 31 |
| - Snow's Theory | 33 |
| The First Experiment: 1849 | 37 |
| - The Broad Street Pump | 37 |
| - The Pump Handle | 40 |
| The Second Experiment: 1853-54 | 41 |
| - A Controlled Experiment--Where Did They Get Their Water? | 41 |
| - The Natural Experiment | 42 |
| Being Critical | 46 |
| - Objections to Snow's Theory | 46 |
| - Other Theories: Effluvia, Elevation, Hard Water, and Soft Water | 49 |
| Applications to Other Problems | 51 |
| - What about Other Diseases? | 51 |
| - What to Do? Measures to Prevent the Spread of Cholera | 53 |
| - What Snow Overlooked | 54 |
| - The Epidemiology of Cancer | 55 |
| Reference Notes | 62 |
| Suggested Reading | 62 |
| CHAPTER 4: Is Heat a Substance? | |
| Introduction | 63 |
| - What Is Heat? | 63 |
| - The Caloric Theory | 64 |
| - The Kinetic Theory | 65 |
| - The Usefulness of the Wrong Theory | 65 |
| - What Is to Come | 66 |
| Measuring Hotness | 68 |
| - Making Things Quantitative | 68 |
| - Thermometers | 70 |
| - The Equilibrium of Heat | 74 |
| - Science and Quantification | 74 |
| - Exact and Inexact Sciences | 75 |
| Heat and Heat Capacity | 77 |
| - The Invention of "Caloric" | 77 |
| - Conservation of Heat | 78 |
| - Joseph Black | 78 |
| - Heat versus Temperature | 79 |
| - What Will the Final Temperature Be? | 80 |
| - "The Capacity for Heat" | 82 |
| Latent Heat | 86 |
| - Melting Ice | 86 |
| - Latent Heat and Caloric | 90 |
| - Other Triumphs of the Caloric Theory: The Flow of Heat | 91 |
| Rumford: Does Heat Have Weight? | 92 |
| - Benjamin Thomson, Count Rumford | 92 |
| - Rumford's War against the Caloric Theory | 93 |
| - Does Heat Weight Anything? | 93 |
| Heat from Friction | 98 |
| - The Boring of Cannons | 98 |
| - Why Rumford Didn't Win | 102 |
| Molecular Motion | 103 |
| - Do Atoms and Molecules Move? | 103 |
| - Demonstration of the Constant Motion of Molecules | 104 |
| - Heat as Molecular Motion | 107 |
| Why Caloric Survived | 109 |
| - How Does Heat Get through a Vacuum? | 109 |
| - What Is Light? | 111 |
| - The Objectivity of Scientists | 112 |
| Reference Notes | 112 |
| Suggested Reading | 113 |
| CHAPTER 5: Who Is Mad? | |
| Introduction | 114 |
| - Who Is Mad? | 114 |
| - A Depressed Genius | 115 |
| - History | 116 |
| Classification as the Starting Point of Science | 120 |
| - Classification | 120 |
| - Facts and Their Classification | 121 |
| - The Kinds of Mental Disorders | 123 |
| - The Risks of an Improved Classification | 125 |
| - Another Way of Looking at the Same "Collection of Facts" | 125 |
| Schizophrenia and Depressive Disorders | 126 |
| - Description of Schizophrenia | 126 |
| - Description of Depressive Disorders | 127 |
| - Comparison of the Two Groups | 128 |
| - Diagnosis | 129 |
| - Pattern Recognition--Art or Science? | 130 |
| The Experience of Madness | 131 |
| Theories of the Causes of Mental Disorders | 135 |
| - Psychoanalytical Theories | 136 |
| - Biological Theories | 137 |
| - Interaction of Biological and Psychodynamic Factors | 138 |
| An Epidemiological Study | 138 |
| - United States and British Rates of Mental Disorder--A Clue to Causes | 138 |
| - Explanations | 139 |
| - Caution! Discovery or Artifact? | 140 |
| - Previous Studies of Reliability of Diagnoses | 142 |
| - A Study of Diagnostic Practices | 144 |
| - A Thermometer for Mental Disorder? | 144 |
| - The Project Diagnosis | 145 |
| - The Results | 146 |
| - How Good Is the Project Diagnosis? | 147 |
| - Other Studies | 148 |
| - The Schizophrenia Epidemic in New York State | 149 |
| - The Psychiatrists Again | 149 |
| - What Have We Learned? | 150 |
| The Mental Hospital | 151 |
| - Deterioration in Schizophrenia | 151 |
| - Institutional Neurosis or Schizophrenia? | 157 |
| - The Origin of Institutional Neurosis | 158 |
| - The Cure | 160 |
| Generalizing a Concept | 163 |
| - Focus in Science | 163 |
| - A New Discovery? | 166 |
| - Total Institutions | 166 |
| - What Do Convents and Concentration Camps Have in Common? | 167 |
| - The Institution and the Condition | 170 |
| - Belief and Evidence | 170 |
| - What Have We Learned So Far? | 171 |
| - Labeling | 172 |
| - Eskimos and Yorubas | 173 |
| Genetic Studies | 174 |
| - Why Does Schizophrenia Run in Families? | 174 |
| - Inheritance | 176 |
| - Genetic Studies of Schizophrenia | 177 |
| - Implications for Classification of Schizophrenia | 182 |
| - Another Classification of Schizophrenia | 183 |
| - The "Myth" of Schizophrenia | 184 |
| - Implications for the Psychodynamic Approach | 184 |
| - Therapeutic Consequences | 185 |
| Postscript | 186 |
| Reference Notes | 186 |
| Suggested Reading | 188 |
| PART III: GENERAL PRINCIPLES | |
| CHAPTER 6: Science--Search For Understanding | |
| Understanding as a Common Experience | 191 |
| The Dancing Atoms | 192 |
| A Sense of Exhilaration | 194 |
| Religion, Poetry | 195 |
| - ...Alcohol | 196 |
| - ...and Insanity | 196 |
| Science Is a Consensus | 197 |
| Reference Notes | 197 |
| CHAPTER 7: Science The Goal of Generality | |
| What It Is | 198 |
| Einstein's Generalization | 199 |
| Cholera and the Germ Theory | 199 |
| The Price of Generality | 199 |
| The Loss of Individuality | 201 |
| Science and Maps | 201 |
| Is History a Science? | 202 |
| Reference Notes | 203 |
| CHAPTER 8: Science--The Experimental Test | |
| Testing Theories | 204 |
| The Development of the Experimental Method | 204 |
| The End of Authority | 206 |
| Repeatability | 207 |
| Quantity Rather Than Quality--The Faith in Mathematics | 208 |
| Testing--Planned and Unplanned | 209 |
| The Experiment Must Make a Difference | 209 |
| An Awareness of Alternatives | 210 |
| Women Drivers and the Lisbon Earthquake | 210 |
| Refutability | 211 |
| You Cannot Prove a Theory Right | 212 |
| You Cannot Prove a Theory Wrong | 213 |
| Indirectness of Experimental Tests | 213 |
| Generality and Indirectness | 214 |
| What Do We Test, and When? | 215 |
| Appendix | 215 |
| - The Experimental Method in the Humanities | 215 |
| - Images as Facts | 216 |
| - A Controlled Experiment | 216 |
| - Results | 217 |
| Reference Notes | 219 |
| Suggested Reading | 219 |
| CHAPTER 9: The Experimenter and the Experiment | |
| The Uncertainty Principle | 221 |
| A Useful Metaphor | 222 |
| The Smart Mice | 223 |
| Placebo Pills in Drug Trials | 223 |
| Blind and Double Blind | 224 |
| The Lively Flatworms | 225 |
| Mental Telepathy | 226 |
| The Clever Horse | 226 |
| Interviewers and Interviewees | 227 |
| Rumford's Mistake | 228 |
| The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy | 229 |
| Reference Notes | 230 |
| CHAPTER 10: Measurement and Its Pitfalls | |
| Measurement and Science | 231 |
| Reliability and Validity | 232 |
| Precision | 232 |
| - Accuracy | 233 |
| - When to Stop | 234 |
| - The Fall of a Leaf | 235 |
| The Point of Diminishing Returns | 235 |
| Counting | 236 |
| How to Fool People | 236 |
| How to Fool Oneself | 237 |
| - The Speed of Light | 237 |
| - The Crime Problem | 238 |
| - The Teenage Widowers | 240 |
| - The Bulgarian Pigs | 241 |
| Reference Notes | 241 |
| CHAPTER 11: Where Do Hypotheses Come From? | |
| We All Make Them | 242 |
| The Moment of Insight | 244 |
| Poetry Also | 247 |
| Folk Wisdom | 247 |
| Chance | 249 |
| The Lost Keys | 250 |
| The Collective Unconscious | 251 |
| The Tactics of Science | 252 |
| Reference Notes | 253 |
| Suggested Reading | 253 |
| CHAPTER 12: The Dispassionate Scientist | |
| The Myths | 254 |
| The Reality | 254 |
| - For Example: Isaac Newton | 255 |
| - Freud Also | 256 |
| Why Scientists Care So Much | 257 |
| The Depersonalization of Discovery | 258 |
| Reference Notes | 259 |
| Suggested Reading | 259 |
| CHAPTER 13: The Cultural Roots of Science | |
| The Subjective Element | 260 |
| The Tacit Component | 261 |
| The Belief in Witchcraft | 262 |
| Arguing with the Azande | 263 |
| Carelessness and Witchcraft | 264 |
| Why? and How? | 266 |
| The Poison Oracle | 267 |
| The Confirmatory Test | 269 |
| Dealing with Contradictory Results | 270 |
| Science versus Witchcraft | 271 |
| Cultures and Subcultures | 272 |
| Scientific Subcultures | 273 |
| Breaking Through | 273 |
| Reference Notes | 275 |
| Suggested Reading | 275 |
| PART IV: MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCE | |
| CHAPTER 14: Logic and Mathematics | |
| Introduction | 279 |
| The Nature of Logic | 280 |
| Probable Inference | 281 |
| Logical Difficulties and Fallacies | 282 |
| An Example of Logical Reasoning | 283 |
| The Nature of Mathematics | 285 |
| The Rules of the Game | 287 |
| The Truth of Mathematics | 287 |
| The Use of Mathematics in Science | 288 |
| The Reasons for Mathematics | 289 |
| - Economy of Effort | 291 |
| - Precision | 291 |
| - Another Kind of Precision | 292 |
| How Many Prime Numbers Are There? An Example of Mathematical Reasoning | 295 |
| Mathematics without Quantities--The Bridges of Koenigsberg | 298 |
| A Nontrivial Problem: The Nature of the Universe | 301 |
| Appendix | 307 |
| Galaxies | 307 |
| Energy Received from a Star | 307 |
| Solid Geometry of the Problem | 308 |
| Reference Notes | 309 |
| Suggested Reading | 310 |
| CHAPTER 15: Probability | |
| How to Deal with Uncertainty | 311 |
| How to Gamble and Win | 311 |
| Heads or Tails? | 312 |
| - Numerical Magnitudes | 313 |
| - Are Tosses Independent? | 313 |
| - The "Law of Averages" | 313 |
| - Sequences of Tosses | 314 |
| - A Proof of the Obvious | 316 |
| - The Familiar Bell-Shaped Curve | 317 |
| - Another Paradox | 318 |
| - The Law of Averages Justified | 322 |
| - Uncertainty Remains | 322 |
| - Black Balls and White Balls | 323 |
| Another Meaning of Probability | 326 |
| Appendix: Applications of Probability Theory to Molecular Diffusion and Genetics | 327 |
| - Introduction | 327 |
| - Molecules in Motion | 327 |
| - Genetics | 334 |
| Reference Notes | 340 |
| Suggested Reading | 340 |
| CHAPTER 16: Statistics | |
| The Problem Turned Around | 341 |
| How Tall Is the Average Person? | 342 |
| Is the Drug Effective? | 343 |
| Random versus Nonrandom | 344 |
| Another Meaning of "Statistics" | 345 |
| How Good Is an Average? | 346 |
| Statistics and Science | 347 |
| Reference Note | 348 |
| Suggested Reading | 348 |
| Index | 349 |