PART I: INTRODUCTION |
CHAPTER 1: What Is Science? |
Why Learn Science? |
3 |
Our Definition of Science |
6 |
- Understanding |
6 |
- Generality |
6 |
- Experimental Test |
7 |
Science versus the Humanities |
7 |
The Case Histories |
9 |
The General Principles |
10 |
Mathematics and Science |
11 |
Suggested Reading |
11 |
|
CHAPTER 2: Facts |
What Are They? |
12 |
Fooling the Eye |
12 |
Seeing after Blindness |
13 |
Facts Are "Theory Laden" |
17 |
How Facts Are Used |
18 |
How Science Begins |
19 |
Collecting All the Facts |
19 |
The Facts about Motion |
20 |
Which Facts Are Relevant? |
21 |
Science and Public Facts |
21 |
Reference Notes |
22 |
Suggested Reading |
22 |
|
PART II: CASE HISTORIES |
CHAPTER 3: Snow on Cholera |
Introduction: The Man, the Background |
25 |
The Disease |
27 |
Introduction to the Study |
28 |
- The History of Cholera |
29 |
- Cholera is Contagious |
30 |
- How Does Cholera Spread? The "Effluvia" Theory |
31 |
- Snow's Theory |
33 |
The First Experiment: 1849 |
37 |
- The Broad Street Pump |
37 |
- The Pump Handle |
40 |
The Second Experiment: 1853-54 |
41 |
- A Controlled Experiment--Where Did They Get Their Water? |
41 |
- The Natural Experiment |
42 |
Being Critical |
46 |
- Objections to Snow's Theory |
46 |
- Other Theories: Effluvia, Elevation, Hard Water, and Soft Water |
49 |
Applications to Other Problems |
51 |
- What about Other Diseases? |
51 |
- What to Do? Measures to Prevent the Spread of Cholera |
53 |
- What Snow Overlooked |
54 |
- The Epidemiology of Cancer |
55 |
Reference Notes |
62 |
Suggested Reading |
62 |
|
CHAPTER 4: Is Heat a Substance? |
Introduction |
63 |
- What Is Heat? |
63 |
- The Caloric Theory |
64 |
- The Kinetic Theory |
65 |
- The Usefulness of the Wrong Theory |
65 |
- What Is to Come |
66 |
Measuring Hotness |
68 |
- Making Things Quantitative |
68 |
- Thermometers |
70 |
- The Equilibrium of Heat |
74 |
- Science and Quantification |
74 |
- Exact and Inexact Sciences |
75 |
Heat and Heat Capacity |
77 |
- The Invention of "Caloric" |
77 |
- Conservation of Heat |
78 |
- Joseph Black |
78 |
- Heat versus Temperature |
79 |
- What Will the Final Temperature Be? |
80 |
- "The Capacity for Heat" |
82 |
Latent Heat |
86 |
- Melting Ice |
86 |
- Latent Heat and Caloric |
90 |
- Other Triumphs of the Caloric Theory: The Flow of Heat |
91 |
Rumford: Does Heat Have Weight? |
92 |
- Benjamin Thomson, Count Rumford |
92 |
- Rumford's War against the Caloric Theory |
93 |
- Does Heat Weight Anything? |
93 |
Heat from Friction |
98 |
- The Boring of Cannons |
98 |
- Why Rumford Didn't Win |
102 |
Molecular Motion |
103 |
- Do Atoms and Molecules Move? |
103 |
- Demonstration of the Constant Motion of Molecules |
104 |
- Heat as Molecular Motion |
107 |
Why Caloric Survived |
109 |
- How Does Heat Get through a Vacuum? |
109 |
- What Is Light? |
111 |
- The Objectivity of Scientists |
112 |
Reference Notes |
112 |
Suggested Reading |
113 |
|
CHAPTER 5: Who Is Mad? |
Introduction |
114 |
- Who Is Mad? |
114 |
- A Depressed Genius |
115 |
- History |
116 |
Classification as the Starting Point of Science |
120 |
- Classification |
120 |
- Facts and Their Classification |
121 |
- The Kinds of Mental Disorders |
123 |
- The Risks of an Improved Classification |
125 |
- Another Way of Looking at the Same "Collection of Facts" |
125 |
Schizophrenia and Depressive Disorders |
126 |
- Description of Schizophrenia |
126 |
- Description of Depressive Disorders |
127 |
- Comparison of the Two Groups |
128 |
- Diagnosis |
129 |
- Pattern Recognition--Art or Science? |
130 |
The Experience of Madness |
131 |
Theories of the Causes of Mental Disorders |
135 |
- Psychoanalytical Theories |
136 |
- Biological Theories |
137 |
- Interaction of Biological and Psychodynamic Factors |
138 |
An Epidemiological Study |
138 |
- United States and British Rates of Mental Disorder--A Clue to Causes |
138 |
- Explanations |
139 |
- Caution! Discovery or Artifact? |
140 |
- Previous Studies of Reliability of Diagnoses |
142 |
- A Study of Diagnostic Practices |
144 |
- A Thermometer for Mental Disorder? |
144 |
- The Project Diagnosis |
145 |
- The Results |
146 |
- How Good Is the Project Diagnosis? |
147 |
- Other Studies |
148 |
- The Schizophrenia Epidemic in New York State |
149 |
- The Psychiatrists Again |
149 |
- What Have We Learned? |
150 |
The Mental Hospital |
151 |
- Deterioration in Schizophrenia |
151 |
- Institutional Neurosis or Schizophrenia? |
157 |
- The Origin of Institutional Neurosis |
158 |
- The Cure |
160 |
Generalizing a Concept |
163 |
- Focus in Science |
163 |
- A New Discovery? |
166 |
- Total Institutions |
166 |
- What Do Convents and Concentration Camps Have in Common? |
167 |
- The Institution and the Condition |
170 |
- Belief and Evidence |
170 |
- What Have We Learned So Far? |
171 |
- Labeling |
172 |
- Eskimos and Yorubas |
173 |
Genetic Studies |
174 |
- Why Does Schizophrenia Run in Families? |
174 |
- Inheritance |
176 |
- Genetic Studies of Schizophrenia |
177 |
- Implications for Classification of Schizophrenia |
182 |
- Another Classification of Schizophrenia |
183 |
- The "Myth" of Schizophrenia |
184 |
- Implications for the Psychodynamic Approach |
184 |
- Therapeutic Consequences |
185 |
Postscript |
186 |
Reference Notes |
186 |
Suggested Reading |
188 |
|
PART III: GENERAL PRINCIPLES |
CHAPTER 6: Science--Search For Understanding |
Understanding as a Common Experience |
191 |
The Dancing Atoms |
192 |
A Sense of Exhilaration |
194 |
Religion, Poetry |
195 |
- ...Alcohol |
196 |
- ...and Insanity |
196 |
Science Is a Consensus |
197 |
Reference Notes |
197 |
|
CHAPTER 7: Science The Goal of Generality |
What It Is |
198 |
Einstein's Generalization |
199 |
Cholera and the Germ Theory |
199 |
The Price of Generality |
199 |
The Loss of Individuality |
201 |
Science and Maps |
201 |
Is History a Science? |
202 |
Reference Notes |
203 |
|
CHAPTER 8: Science--The Experimental Test |
Testing Theories |
204 |
The Development of the Experimental Method |
204 |
The End of Authority |
206 |
Repeatability |
207 |
Quantity Rather Than Quality--The Faith in Mathematics |
208 |
Testing--Planned and Unplanned |
209 |
The Experiment Must Make a Difference |
209 |
An Awareness of Alternatives |
210 |
Women Drivers and the Lisbon Earthquake |
210 |
Refutability |
211 |
You Cannot Prove a Theory Right |
212 |
You Cannot Prove a Theory Wrong |
213 |
Indirectness of Experimental Tests |
213 |
Generality and Indirectness |
214 |
What Do We Test, and When? |
215 |
Appendix |
215 |
- The Experimental Method in the Humanities |
215 |
- Images as Facts |
216 |
- A Controlled Experiment |
216 |
- Results |
217 |
Reference Notes |
219 |
Suggested Reading |
219 |
|
CHAPTER 9: The Experimenter and the Experiment |
The Uncertainty Principle |
221 |
A Useful Metaphor |
222 |
The Smart Mice |
223 |
Placebo Pills in Drug Trials |
223 |
Blind and Double Blind |
224 |
The Lively Flatworms |
225 |
Mental Telepathy |
226 |
The Clever Horse |
226 |
Interviewers and Interviewees |
227 |
Rumford's Mistake |
228 |
The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy |
229 |
Reference Notes |
230 |
|
CHAPTER 10: Measurement and Its Pitfalls |
Measurement and Science |
231 |
Reliability and Validity |
232 |
Precision |
232 |
- Accuracy |
233 |
- When to Stop |
234 |
- The Fall of a Leaf |
235 |
The Point of Diminishing Returns |
235 |
Counting |
236 |
How to Fool People |
236 |
How to Fool Oneself |
237 |
- The Speed of Light |
237 |
- The Crime Problem |
238 |
- The Teenage Widowers |
240 |
- The Bulgarian Pigs |
241 |
Reference Notes |
241 |
|
CHAPTER 11: Where Do Hypotheses Come From? |
We All Make Them |
242 |
The Moment of Insight |
244 |
Poetry Also |
247 |
Folk Wisdom |
247 |
Chance |
249 |
The Lost Keys |
250 |
The Collective Unconscious |
251 |
The Tactics of Science |
252 |
Reference Notes |
253 |
Suggested Reading |
253 |
|
CHAPTER 12: The Dispassionate Scientist |
The Myths |
254 |
The Reality |
254 |
- For Example: Isaac Newton |
255 |
- Freud Also |
256 |
Why Scientists Care So Much |
257 |
The Depersonalization of Discovery |
258 |
Reference Notes |
259 |
Suggested Reading |
259 |
|
CHAPTER 13: The Cultural Roots of Science |
The Subjective Element |
260 |
The Tacit Component |
261 |
The Belief in Witchcraft |
262 |
Arguing with the Azande |
263 |
Carelessness and Witchcraft |
264 |
Why? and How? |
266 |
The Poison Oracle |
267 |
The Confirmatory Test |
269 |
Dealing with Contradictory Results |
270 |
Science versus Witchcraft |
271 |
Cultures and Subcultures |
272 |
Scientific Subcultures |
273 |
Breaking Through |
273 |
Reference Notes |
275 |
Suggested Reading |
275 |
|
PART IV: MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCE |
CHAPTER 14: Logic and Mathematics |
Introduction |
279 |
The Nature of Logic |
280 |
Probable Inference |
281 |
Logical Difficulties and Fallacies |
282 |
An Example of Logical Reasoning |
283 |
The Nature of Mathematics |
285 |
The Rules of the Game |
287 |
The Truth of Mathematics |
287 |
The Use of Mathematics in Science |
288 |
The Reasons for Mathematics |
289 |
- Economy of Effort |
291 |
- Precision |
291 |
- Another Kind of Precision |
292 |
How Many Prime Numbers Are There? An Example of Mathematical Reasoning |
295 |
Mathematics without Quantities--The Bridges of Koenigsberg |
298 |
A Nontrivial Problem: The Nature of the Universe |
301 |
Appendix |
307 |
Galaxies |
307 |
Energy Received from a Star |
307 |
Solid Geometry of the Problem |
308 |
Reference Notes |
309 |
Suggested Reading |
310 |
|
CHAPTER 15: Probability |
How to Deal with Uncertainty |
311 |
How to Gamble and Win |
311 |
Heads or Tails? |
312 |
- Numerical Magnitudes |
313 |
- Are Tosses Independent? |
313 |
- The "Law of Averages" |
313 |
- Sequences of Tosses |
314 |
- A Proof of the Obvious |
316 |
- The Familiar Bell-Shaped Curve |
317 |
- Another Paradox |
318 |
- The Law of Averages Justified |
322 |
- Uncertainty Remains |
322 |
- Black Balls and White Balls |
323 |
Another Meaning of Probability |
326 |
Appendix: Applications of Probability Theory to Molecular Diffusion and Genetics |
327 |
- Introduction |
327 |
- Molecules in Motion |
327 |
- Genetics |
334 |
Reference Notes |
340 |
Suggested Reading |
340 |
|
CHAPTER 16: Statistics |
The Problem Turned Around |
341 |
How Tall Is the Average Person? |
342 |
Is the Drug Effective? |
343 |
Random versus Nonrandom |
344 |
Another Meaning of "Statistics" |
345 |
How Good Is an Average? |
346 |
Statistics and Science |
347 |
Reference Note |
348 |
Suggested Reading |
348 |
|
Index |
349 |