### Standard 11: Probability

In grades 9-12, the mathematics curriculum should include the continued study of probability so that students can:
• Use experimental or theoretical probability, as appropriate, to represent and solve problems involving uncertainty
• Benchmarks 9D (The Mathematical World: Uncertainty)
How probability is estimated depends on what is known about the situation. Estimates can be based on data from similar conditions in the past or on the assumption that all the possibilities are known.

Benchmarks 12B (Habits of Mind: Computation and Estimation)
Estimate probabilities of outcomes in familiar situations, on the basis of history or the number of possible outcomes.

• Use simulations to estimate probabilities
• Benchmarks 11B (Common Themes: Models)
Mathematical models can be displayed on a computer then modified to see what happens.

Benchmarks 9D (The Mathematical World: Uncertainty)
A physical or mathematical model can be used to estimate the probability of real-world events.

• Understand the concept of a random variable
• Create and interpret discrete probability distributions
• Benchmarks 12B (Habits of Mind: Computation and Estimation)