Benchmark 9D: The Mathematical World : Uncertainty (grades 3-5, pages 227-8)

• Some predictions can be based on what is known about the past, assuming that conditions are pretty much the same now. (1 of 5)

Standard 11-3 page 54, Grades K-4

Formulate and solve problems that involve collecting and analyzing data

• Statistical predictions (as for rainy days, accidents) are typically better for what proportion of a group will experience something than for which members of the group will experience it and better for how often something will happen than for exactly when. (2 of 5)

Standard 5-1 page 36, Grades K-4

Explore estimation strategies

Standard 5-2 page 36, Grades K-4

Recognize when an estimate is appropriate

Standard 11-4 page 54, Grades K-4

Explore concepts of chance

Standard 10-5, page 105, Grades 5-8

Develop an appreciation for statistical methods as powerful means for decision-making

• Summary predictions are usually more accurate for large collections of events than for just a few. Even very unlikely events may occur fairly often in very large populations. (3 of 5)

Standard 11-4 page 54, Grades K-4

Explore concepts of chance

Standard 10-5, page 105, Grades 5-8

Develop an appreciation for statistical methods as powerful means for decision-making

• Spreading data out on a number line helps to see what the extremes are, where they pile up, and where the gaps are. A summary of data includes where the middle is and how much spread is around it. (4 of 5)

Standard 11-2 page 54, Grades K-4

Construct, read, and interpret displays of data

Standard 10-1, page 105, Grades 5-8

Systematically collect, organize, and describe data

• A small part of something may be special in some way and not give and accurate picture of the whole. How much a portion of something can help to estimate what the whole is like depends on how the portion is chosen. There is a danger of choosing only the data that show what is expected by the person doing the choosing. (5 of 5)

Standard 11-2 page 54, Grades K-4

Construct, read, and interpret displays of data

Standard 10-1, page 105, Grades 5-8

Systematically collect, organize, and describe data